What a World Cup bet actually costs a New Zealand punter

Updated October 2026

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A World Cup bet looks like one number — the odds, the price, the boosted multi. It is never just that. The cost of any wager is the sum of three things: what the bookmaker keeps (its margin, hidden in every decimal), what the bonus structure demands back (turnover, minimum odds, deadlines), and what an offshore operator offers when local law says it cannot lawfully take the bet. The 2026 FIFA World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States is over, settled and won by Spain in extra time, so every market on the tournament has already paid out or lost — but the prices, the offers and the rules that shaped them carry forward, and the next World Cup is already on the calendar. This page works out what each part costs, in New Zealand dollars, in plain arithmetic.

Figures current as of October 30, 2026, checked against the Department of Internal Affairs register and the Racing Industry Act 2020.

Welcome offers and what they really cost

A bookmaker’s welcome offer is a sales pitch with a price tag. The pitch is the headline — a 100% match, a $50 bonus bet, a 200% boost. The price is what the bettor must do to convert the bonus into withdrawable cash. The distance between the two is where the offer’s real cost lives.

For the World Cup, the same mechanics apply as for any other sport, and the same arithmetic does the work. A bonus bet whose stake is not returned with a win is worth less than the headline amount, because the bookmaker’s margin sits inside the price the bet is placed at. A 200% match bonus sounds generous until the turnover required is set at, say, ten times the bonus plus deposit at minimum odds of 1.50, with a 30-day deadline and a cap on winnings. None of that cancels out. The 200% only ever lands on the bonus pocket of the new account, and the bonus pocket is the hardest money in the room to move.

The smart read is to look past the percentage and into the conditions. What is the wagering multiple? What is the minimum odds that counts toward turnover? How long does the offer run? Is the stake returned, or only the profit, when a free bet wins? The answer to each of those questions either makes the offer a real deal or exposes it as a marketing number with maths behind it.

The four cost lines every offer carries

Every World Cup betting offer, in New Zealand and out, carries the same four cost lines, even when the marketing hides them.

The first is the wagering multiple — how many times the bonus (or the bonus plus the deposit) must be turned over before withdrawal is allowed. A 5x multiple on a $100 bonus means $500 in qualifying bets, and that volume itself is a cost, because each bet is placed into markets with a margin attached. The second is the minimum odds, the price below which a bet does not count toward the requirement. A 1.50 floor means a bet on the tournament favourite at 1.20 is a bet the bettor loses without gaining any progress on the bonus. The third is the deadline, the window of days the offer must be cleared in, after which any unused bonus and the winnings it produced are forfeit. The fourth is the cap on winnings or on stake, a ceiling that turns a big multi into a small payout no matter how many legs land.

The marketing will not put those four on the same page. The bettor’s job is to read the fine print and total the cost before accepting the offer.

A worked example: the 200% crypto welcome

A 200% match up to a stated cap, on a first deposit, with a 40x turnover requirement on the bonus and a minimum odds requirement of 1.60, is a textbook example of an offer that looks bigger than it is. The bonus itself is the deposit multiplied by the percentage, and the turnover is that bonus multiplied by the wagering multiple. A $50 deposit in crypto at a 200% match produces a $100 bonus; $100 at 40x is $4,000 of qualifying bets; at minimum odds of 1.60, every leg of that $4,000 is a bet into a market with a margin the bookmaker sets. The expected cost of clearing the bonus is the turnover times that margin — a number the bettor is paying to convert marketing money into cash.

The arithmetic is the same for a smaller offer. A 100% match up to $100, with a 10x turnover on the bonus plus deposit and a 30-day window, at minimum odds of 1.50, costs less in volume but costs more in time pressure, because the deadline still has to be met.

Free bets: the stake is usually not paid back

A free bet is not a free cash bet. When a free bet wins, the bookmaker pays the profit, not the stake, and the profit is the stake multiplied by the odds minus one. A $10 free bet at odds of 3.00 returns $20, not $30, because the $10 stake is the bettor’s entry fee and never comes back. The expected value of the free bet is that profit, multiplied by the chance of winning, less the chance of losing. On a market with a 5% margin, the expected value of the free bet is less than its face value by roughly that same percentage, because the margin in the price eats into the upside.

This is the part the marketing does not say. A “$50 free bet” is not $50. It is a coupon for the profit only, and the profit is reduced by the margin of the market the bet is placed on.

Boosted odds and acca insurance

A boosted odds offer multiplies one price by a stated factor. The result is still a price, and the price still carries a margin — often a higher one than the un-boosted price, because the bookmaker is paying for the marketing. A price boost is a deal on a single outcome, and the only way to know if it is a deal is to compare the boosted price to the price on the same selection at another bookmaker, with the same terms.

Accumulator insurance refunds a stake, usually as a free bet, if one leg of a multi loses. The cost is the higher margin the bookmaker builds into the multi, plus the fact that the refund is itself a free bet whose stake is not returned. The bettor is paying for the insurance twice — once in the price, once in the refund terms.

Strategy, predictions, and the work that does not work

A World Cup brings out the prediction industry. Free tips, paid picks, model outputs, “best bets” lists and AI-generated forecasts appear in their thousands in the tournament. They are not a strategy. They are a market, and the market sells hope.

The work that does work is bankroll management: betting a fixed percentage of a fixed bank on every wager, on markets the bettor has priced independently, and tracking results over hundreds of bets. The world of tipsters produces a different return, because the tipster is paid up front, by subscription or by affiliate, and the tipster’s record is curated. A published strike rate of 60% sounds strong until the odds on those bets average 1.60, which is a break-even proposition before the margin is removed.

Bankroll, stake sizing, and the Kelly criterion

The cleanest bettor’s tool is a fixed unit — 1% to 2% of bank per bet — and a record of every wager, with the price and the market. The Kelly criterion, the formula that sizes a stake to the perceived edge, is the academic version of the same idea, and it is worth understanding even if the bettor does not use it directly. Kelly says the stake is the edge divided by the odds minus one. A 10% edge at odds of 3.00 gives a stake of 10% divided by 2, or 5% of bank. Kelly is aggressive; half-Kelly and quarter-Kelly are the usual compromises. The point is the same: a stake sized to the edge, not to the gut, and an edge measured in markets the bettor has actually priced, not in the marketing words of a tipster.

What a tipster record actually shows

A tipster’s record, when one is published, is a sample. The sample is always small, always selected, and always a marketing document. A 55% strike rate over 200 bets at average odds of 1.85 is a profitable record only if the bets were placed at the prices the tipster published; if the tipster was laying off at 1.80, the record is a loss. The honest tipster publishes the price the bet was placed at, the bookmaker used, and the closing line, and the honest bettor checks those three numbers before paying for a subscription. The dishonest tipster publishes the win and hides the rest.

Closing line value

The closing line is the price a market settles at just before the event starts, and it is the best public estimate of a fair price. A bettor who consistently beats the closing line is making a profit, after the margin, over a sample large enough to be meaningful. Closing line value is the only test of a tipster that survives the noise of a small sample. The test is the bettor’s to run, not the tipster’s to claim.

Bet types, odds, and how a price is built

A World Cup bet is a price on an outcome, and the price is the bettor’s return per dollar staked. Decimal odds of 2.10 mean a $10 bet returns $21, which is the $10 stake plus an $11 profit. The price carries the bookmaker’s margin, which is the percentage of every dollar bet that the bookmaker keeps on average. A market with a 5% margin returns, in the long run, 95 cents of every dollar bet on it. A market with a 10% margin returns 90 cents.

The margin is hidden in the price. A 1X2 market — home win, draw, away win — with odds of 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60 has a margin that can be calculated from the three prices. The formula is the inverse of the sum of the inverses of the odds, and the margin is one minus that figure. For those three prices, the sum of the inverses is 0.4762 plus 0.2941 plus 0.2778, which is 1.0481. The payout share is one divided by that, or 0.9542. The margin is 1 minus 0.9542, or 4.58%. On every dollar bet across all three outcomes in this market, the bookmaker keeps roughly 4.6 cents.

That is the cost a bettor pays to place the bet. The cost is the same whether the bettor wins or loses on a single wager. Over hundreds of bets, the margin is the slice the bookmaker keeps. The same three prices with a bigger favourite — say 1.50 / 4.00 / 6.00 — give a margin closer to 7%, because the bookmaker builds more into the longer prices. The same outcome with sharper prices, with lower margins across the three selections, gives a higher payout share. The cheapest market on the World Cup, in margin terms, is the match result, and even there the cheapest major bookmaker is several points more expensive than a sharp betting exchange.

Decimal, fractional, and how to read a price

New Zealand betting uses decimal odds. A $10 bet at odds of 2.50 returns $25, which is a $15 profit. A $10 bet at odds of 1.50 returns $15, which is a $5 profit. Fractional odds — 3/1, 5/2 — are an older British form; a 3/1 price is the same as 4.00 in decimal, and a 5/2 is the same as 3.50. A bettor who only reads decimal prices need not convert; a bettor who reads a UK or Irish price must check the conversion once.

The price is also a probability. Odds of 2.00 are a 50% implied probability, because 1 divided by 2.00 is 0.50. Odds of 3.00 are 33.3% implied. The bookmaker’s margin is the difference between the implied probabilities and 100%. A market with prices of 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60 has implied probabilities of 47.6%, 29.4% and 27.8%, which add to 104.8% — a 4.8% margin, the same number the formula gives.

Same-game multi and the cost of legs multiplying

A same-game multi is a bet on multiple outcomes from one event. The legs multiply into one price. Two legs at 1.80 and 1.70 give a combined price of 3.06. Each leg has its own margin, and the margins compound: a market with a 5% margin and another with a 6% margin, multiplied together, give a combined margin closer to 11% than to 5.5%. The more legs, the higher the margin in the combined price, and the harder the bet is to win on a true-probability basis.

A multi is not a strategy. It is a price, and the price is worse than the sum of its parts in almost every case. The marketing on a multi is the headline payout — the long odds, the “if all four legs land you win $500” — and the marketing is true to the letter and misleading in spirit. A multi is a bet on a low-probability event, and the bettor pays a margin on the way in.

Live betting and the suspended market

Live betting, also called in-play, is betting on an event while it is in progress. The prices move with the action, and the bookmaker suspends the market at key moments — a goal, a red card, a penalty — to reprice. The suspension is a feature, not a glitch. It exists because the bookmaker needs a moment to rebuild the price around the new information, and the bettor who rushes a bet into a market that has not been repriced is paying the old price for a new situation. The cost of a live bet is the speed at which the bettor reacts versus the speed at which the bookmaker suspends, and the bookmaker has the structural advantage on both sides.

Cash-out and the value of a position

Cash-out is a feature that lets a bettor settle a bet before the event ends, at a price the bookmaker sets. The price is the bookmaker’s estimate of the current value of the bet, with a margin attached. A cash-out at 80% of the maximum payout is not the same as the bet’s true expected value of, say, 90%. The 10-point gap is the bookmaker’s cut, paid by the bettor who takes the cash-out. The cash-out feature is most useful when the bettor wants to lock in a small profit on a multi before the last leg starts, but the price is always the bookmaker’s price.

The 2026 World Cup and what was on the menu

The 2026 FIFA World Cup ran from 11 June to 19 July 2026 in Canada, Mexico and the United States, with 48 teams playing 104 matches across 16 host cities. The format was 12 groups of four, with the top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing to a Round of 32. Spain won the tournament, beating defending champion Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on 19 July 2026. Kylian Mbappé took the Golden Boot with 10 goals.

The next edition is the 2030 FIFA World Cup, to be hosted by Spain, Portugal and Morocco, with opening matches in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The 2026 edition was a record tournament by participation, and the matches were settled in the way tournaments always settle: one team lifted the trophy, and the rest of the field did not.

For New Zealand punters, the tournament’s market list on the lawful operator was the standard World Cup menu. Match result on every fixture, both teams to score, over/under totals, Asian handicaps, outright winner, group winner, top scorer, stage of elimination. Same-game multis on the bigger matches. Live betting on the bigger matches, with markets suspended around goals and key incidents. The prices carried the operator’s margin, and the margin was the same margin as on any other football market on the platform.

World Cup titles by nation

The historical record of World Cup titles matters because the outright winner market is priced partly on that record. Brazil has won five, Germany and Italy four each, Argentina three, France and Spain two, Uruguay two, and England one. Spain’s 2026 win lifted them level with France and Uruguay. The 2030 field will be priced on the 2026 result as well as on the historical record, and the cycle repeats.

Rugby World Cup and cricket World Cup

New Zealand is a rugby and cricket nation as well as a football one, and the World Cup calendar for those sports is the bigger betting event for most Kiwi punters. The Rugby World Cup is held every four years, and the All Blacks’ performance sets the headline market. The Cricket World Cup is held every four years in its 50-over form, and the Black Caps’ run sets the equivalent market. The same mechanics apply: a margin in the price, a bonus structure in the welcome offer, a cap on winnings somewhere in the terms. The same arithmetic does the work.

How the ten bookmakers compare on World Cup betting

The shortlist for World Cup sports bets in New Zealand is a two-part list. The first two are the only lawful options for a person betting from New Zealand. The remaining eight are international brands a New Zealand resident will encounter online; each is rated on the same criteria, but each is offshore, and offshore means no New Zealand licence, no New Zealand complaints route, and no New Zealand harm-minimisation framework reaches the bettor’s account.

The two New Zealand-licensed brands are one operator group — TAB and Betcha share a parent in TAB New Zealand, with Entain running the operation under a 25-year agreement signed in 2023. Entain takes 50% of gross profits under the deal, and TAB NZ receives at least $150m a year for the first five years, with a one-off $100m Entain pledged to the racing sector. The offshore brands are not rivals to TAB; they are operators the New Zealand resident meets in marketing, and they are not lawful in New Zealand.

The reading the table is asking the bettor to do

The two New Zealand-licensed brands are the same operator with two different brand names. A bettor who prefers one over the other is choosing on app, on market list, or on the welcome offer, not on legality. Both are lawful, both are overseen by the Department of Internal Affairs, and both share the same problem-gambling levy contribution. The offshore brands are not a fallback. They are a different market with different rules, no New Zealand oversight, and no New Zealand complaints route. A dispute over a voided bet, a withheld payout, or a confiscated balance goes to the offshore brand’s own regulator — Curaçao, Anjouan, the Union of the Comoros, or whatever licence the brand names — and New Zealand’s harm-minimisation framework does not follow the bet there.

The New Zealand betting market in 2026

New Zealand’s sports-betting market is a monopoly by statute. Section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, inserted by the Racing Industry Amendment Act 2025 and in force since 28 June 2025, says no person other than TAB NZ may offer racing betting, sports betting or other racing or sports betting to a person in New Zealand, regardless of where that person is resident or incorporated. The Department of Internal Affairs told providers serving New Zealand to withdraw with immediate effect. There is no licence to apply for and no licence register for bookmakers, because there is only one lawful operator.

TAB and Betcha are the two online brands of TAB NZ. They are not competitors. They are two apps on the same back end, run by Entain under the partnership described above, with the same betting rules, the same problem-gambling levy contribution, and the same exclusions list. The 18+ age requirement is the same on both. The deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion are the same on both. An exclusion from one brand applies across the operator group.

What the law covers

The Racing Industry Act 2020, with the 2025 amendment, covers racing and sports betting. The Online Casino Gambling Act 2026 covers online casino gambling only, and it does not extend the betting monopoly. TAB New Zealand winning the right to apply for a casino licence under the 2026 law does not change the betting rules. The two are separate permits with separate rules. The greyhound racing code is closing in stages from 1 August 2026, and from that date offshore operators may not take bets on greyhound races either.

The Department of Internal Affairs is the gambling regulator under the Gambling Act 2003 and monitors compliance with the betting prohibition. The Department does not block offshore websites; the law puts liability on the offshore operator, and the player is not the target of the prohibition. Section 19(4) of the Gambling Act 2003, inserted in 2025, says an individual may not be convicted for placing a bet with an offshore betting operator in breach of section 74AAA. The Department warns players of the risks: overseas operators may be in jurisdictions with minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits and may not pay out large wins. None of that is a criminal penalty on the player. It is the regulator telling the player what the offshore market looks like.

Advertising, payments, and tax

The Advertising Standards Authority’s Gambling Advertising Code applies to betting advertisements. Ads must not target children under 14 or young people 14 to under 18, judged by context, appeal and expected audience, and a 25% share of the audience counts as significant where accurate data exists. Ads must not encourage gambling harm and must be truthful with terms available. Because only TAB NZ may offer betting here, the Department reads the prohibition as covering promotion of another operator; how the Department treats betting affiliates is not established.

There is no statutory payment rule for betting accounts. Card, bank, credit, prepaid and crypto are all operator-level decisions, and TAB NZ’s own terms set the deposit methods and limits. No payment-blocking order or bank obligation was found. Nothing states a rule on crypto or VPN use, and TAB NZ account opening requires a verified New Zealand address and ID.

For the player, Inland Revenue guidance says recreational gambling winnings are generally not taxable and prize money from TAB horse, dog and trotting races is not taxable. A person who bets as a business is a different case. Operator side: TAB NZ pays the Problem Gambling Levy of 0.74%, in force from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028. Overseas operators supplying New Zealand residents pay online gambling duty — 12% of profits since 1 July 2024, rising to 16% from 1 January 2027 — but a duty being payable does not make an offer lawful. The point-of-consumption charge on offshore racing and sports bets ceased on 30 June 2026.

The cost the regulator cannot remove

The bookmaker’s margin is the cost a regulator cannot remove. It is built into every price, on every market, at every bookmaker, in every country. The New Zealand market is no different, and the offshore market is no worse in margin terms than the local one. The lawful operator and the offshore brand both build a margin into their prices, and the margin is the slice of every dollar bet that the bookmaker keeps on average.

The 2026 World Cup markets were priced in the same way as every other football market: a margin on the 1X2, a higher margin on the multi, an even higher margin on the live bet. The cost of the bet, in margin terms, was the margin the price carried, and the cost of the offer, in turnover terms, was the turnover the welcome offer required. None of that disappears with a different operator. A bettor looking for a cheaper bet is looking for a sharper price on the same market, and the only way to find one is to compare prices across multiple bookmakers on the same selection.

A bettor looking for a cheaper offer is looking for a lower wagering multiple, a longer deadline, a higher minimum odds or no minimum odds, and no cap on winnings. Those are the four cost lines, and the cheapest offer is the one with the lowest total of them. The marketing on the offer is the part the bettor ignores.

The arithmetic of a market

An illustrative match-result market with decimal odds of 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60 carries a margin between roughly 4.5% and 5% on the bookmaker’s pricing. The exact figure depends on whether the bookmaker rounds the prices or builds them to the third decimal, but the band is consistent. The payout share — the share of every dollar bet across all three outcomes that comes back to bettors on a true-probability basis — is correspondingly 95% to 95.5%. The cost to the bettor, on every $100 of turnover on this market, is roughly $4.50 to $5.00.

The same market with a different favourite — say 1.50 / 4.00 / 6.00 — has a margin closer to 7% and a payout share closer to 93%. The same market with a sharp price, on a betting exchange with liquidity, can run a 2% margin and a 98% payout share. The difference is the size of the bookmaker’s edge, and the difference is permanent.

The cost of a multi

A two-leg multi on prices of 1.80 and 1.70 multiplies to 3.06, which is a 32.7% implied probability. If each leg is a market with a 5% margin, the combined margin is closer to 10% than to 5.5%, and the implied probability is overstated by roughly 3 percentage points. A three-leg multi at 1.60, 1.70 and 1.80 multiplies to 4.90, which is a 20.4% implied probability. The combined margin is closer to 14% than to 7.5%, and the implied probability is overstated by roughly 5 percentage points. A five-leg multi is closer to a 20% margin, and a true-probability bettor with an edge of 5% on each leg has lost money to the margin before a single leg is settled.

The cost of the multi is the compounded margin. The marketing on the multi is the long odds and the headline payout. The bettor who clears the marketing is paying for it.

The cost of clearing a bonus

A 200% match bonus on a $50 deposit, with a 40x turnover on the bonus at minimum odds of 1.60, requires $4,000 of qualifying bets. At a market margin of 5%, the expected cost of clearing the bonus is $200. The bonus itself is $100, and the net expected value of the offer is minus $100. The bettor paid $200 in margin to win a $100 bonus.

A 100% match on $100, with a 10x turnover on the bonus plus deposit at minimum odds of 1.50, requires $2,000 of qualifying bets. At a 5% margin, the expected cost is $100. The bonus is $100. The expected value of the offer is roughly zero, before the deadline cost. With a 30-day deadline and the time pressure that creates, the expected value is below zero.

A free bet of $50 at odds of 3.00 on a market with a 5% margin has an expected value of $50 multiplied by 2/3, multiplied by 0.95, which is $31.67. The face value is $50. The real value is $31.67. The bettor is paying $18.33 in margin to convert the coupon into cash.

The cost of every offer is the same: the margin on the turnover required to clear it, plus the deadline cost of doing it within the window, plus the cap on winnings if the bet lands. The marketing is the part the bettor ignores.

Staying in control of the cost

The cheapest bet is the one a bettor does not place. The second cheapest is the one placed at a sharp price, on a market the bettor has priced independently, with a stake sized to a fixed percentage of bank. The third cheapest is the one placed on the same selection at a less sharp price, because the edge is still there. Everything else — the long-shot multi, the boosted-odds coupon, the “best bets” list — pays a margin the bettor has not priced.

The New Zealand harm-minimisation tools are the same tools a regulator anywhere makes available: deposit limits, time-outs, self-exclusion. TAB NZ’s apps carry all three, and an exclusion from one brand applies across the operator group. The free Gambling Helpline — 0800 654 655, text 8006 — is the line for anyone who needs it. Safer Gambling Aotearoa is the public-facing programme. The Department of Internal Affairs’ warnings about offshore operators are a different category: they are a regulator telling the player that the offshore market has minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits, and may not pay out large wins. None of that is a marketing line. It is the regulator’s own characterisation of the offshore market.

The 2026 World Cup is over. The 2030 tournament is on the calendar. The same arithmetic will do the same work.

Frequently asked questions

How do I bet on the World Cup?

A bet on the World Cup is a wager on an outcome of a match or a tournament, placed with a bookmaker at a stated price. In New Zealand, the only provider lawfully offering sports betting is TAB NZ, through its TAB and Betcha brands, under section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020. Open an account, deposit, select a market, choose a stake, and confirm the bet on the slip.

How do I bet on the FIFA World Cup specifically?

A bet on the FIFA World Cup is the same shape as a bet on any football match: 1X2 on the result, totals on the goals, handicaps on the spread, outright on the winner, top scorer on the Golden Boot, stage of elimination on the knockout path. Same-game multis combine several outcomes from one match. The 2026 edition has been played and settled; the next is 2030.

How do I bet on the cricket World Cup?

A bet on the cricket World Cup is the same shape as a bet on any cricket match: match winner, top batsman, top bowler, totals, method of dismissal, and outright on the tournament. The 50-over World Cup and the T20 World Cup are separate tournaments on different cycles. New Zealand’s cricket codes are covered by TAB NZ on the same market menu as any other cricket event.

Which bookmaker may lawfully take sports and racing bets in New Zealand?

TAB NZ, through its TAB and Betcha brands, is the only provider lawfully offering racing and sports betting to people in New Zealand, under section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, in force since 28 June 2025. There is no licence to apply for and no licence register for bookmakers. Any other brand a New Zealand resident encounters is offshore, is not licensed in New Zealand, and operates outside the Department of Internal Affairs’ harm-minimisation framework.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

A bet’s return is the stake multiplied by the decimal odds. A $10 bet at odds of 2.50 returns $25, which is a $15 profit. For a multi, the odds of each leg multiply into one price, and the stake is multiplied by the combined price. The stake is paid back with a win, except on a free bet, where only the profit is paid.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how can it be seen in the odds?

The margin is the share of every dollar bet that the bookmaker keeps on average, and it sits inside every price. The payout share is one divided by the sum of the inverses of the odds, and the margin is one minus the payout share. An illustrative match-result market at odds of 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60 has a payout share of roughly 95.4% and a margin of roughly 4.6%, so the bookmaker keeps around 4.6 cents of every dollar bet on that market. The lower the margin, the sharper the price.

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